(Edinburgh / Great Britain) – Green hydrogen plays an essential role in the overall energy mix. Manufacturing costs are falling faster than with wind and solar energy or lithium-ion batteries. This is what the British analyst firm Wood Mackenzie (Wood Mac) predicts in its latest study “2050: The Hydrogen Possibility".
The report describes that the project pipeline for production capacities has grown nine-fold to 2019 gigawatts (GW) since October 26. National hydrogen strategies have set targets for a total of 66 gigawatts of electrolyzer capacity. This indicates that growth is continuing to accelerate, according to the American Wood-Mac subsidiary Greentech Media.
Forecasts at ever shorter intervals
In January, electrolyzer manufacturer Nel set a target of $1,50 per kilogram by 2025 (we reported). The current price is around four dollars. “Predictions about when green hydrogen could be competitive with existing carbon-rich production methods” are coming at ever shorter intervals. “It's going to happen faster than anyone predicts, including us,” said Ben Gallagher, senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie and author of the study.
The EU is aiming for an electrolyzer capacity of 40 GW by 2030. France wants 6,5 GW of capacity, and both the UK and Germany have set their own targets of 5 GW. At the same time, major energy suppliers such as RWE and Iberdrola have joined oil majors Shell, BP and Total to develop large-scale green hydrogen projects.
“The development of the green hydrogen market will depend on how strongly politicians support it in the first few years and how many companies commit to investing in this technology,” said Gallagher.
The bottlenecks are the buyers
So far, most major projects are in the early phases of development. They are so detailed that they can apply for public funding, but only a few have specific buyers for the product. “Apart from those who want to swap gray hydrogen directly for green, most projects advertise that transport acceptance does not yet exist or with industrial buyers who have not yet committed to investing in the conversion.”
Wood Mackenzie expects 80 percent of the low-carbon hydrogen deployed this decade to replace existing fossil fuel-derived hydrogen “as demand in heating, shipping and aviation remains out of reach.”
deep link
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/woodmac-on-green-hydrogen-its-going-to-happen-faster-than-anyone-expects
Summary of the study “2050: The Hydrogen Possibility”
https://www.woodmac.com/our-expertise/focus/transition/2050—the-hydrogen-possibility/
Photos
Enapter wants to produce 100.000 electrolysers annually in the Saerbeck bioenergy park / © Enapter
