(Karlsruhe) – The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) is examining the effects of the war in Ukraine on the German and European import strategy for hydrogen. Researchers from ISI, together with colleagues, examined the criteria for evaluating partner countries when importing hydrogen and the development of import costs
They also address the potential for hydrogen production in the European Union as well as the future economic development of Ukraine through the production and transport of hydrogen.
Partner countries, supply chains and diversification
The scientists bundle their results into eight detailed proposals, called “impulses”. Summarized:
- Delivery countries: The evaluation of potential hydrogen suppliers should be guided by clear criteria and give greater weight to political risks. In addition to the technical availability of the energy source and its price, the reliability of the partner countries must also be assessed.
- Reassessment: A broad network of partner countries in different regions of the world could contribute to a diversified hydrogen supply. The USA and Canada, Chile, Brazil, Argentina or South Africa, Morocco, Egypt and Namibia would come into question.
- Supply chains: Liquefying and shipping hydrogen leads to around 25 percent higher overall costs compared to pipeline transport, and building up production and transport capacities takes time. However, this contributes to diversification and protection against too much market power from a few providers.
- Potential of Ukraine: Ukraine has a lot of long-term potential for producing green hydrogen (1.400 terawatt hours by 2050). The country could become a reliable partner provided Ukraine remains free and unoccupied.
- European Union: The European Union expects total hydrogen demand of 2030 terawatt hours in 670 and 2.250 terawatt hours in 2050. The exploitable potential for hydrogen production is 5.000 to 6.000 terawatt hours. The EU can largely cover its own demand for green hydrogen, particularly through the yield from photovoltaic systems in the south and wind farms in the north. Security of supply must be weighed against possible lower import costs.
- derivatives: Synthetic products could become more attractive in the short and medium term for economic reasons and from the perspective of security of supply. The transport costs of methanol or ammonia were lower than those of hydrogen due to their high transport density and the lower energy consumption during transport. Synthetic products could tend to be transported more quickly to the EU and Germany.
- Natural gas: High natural gas prices and an uncertain supply situation increased the uncertainties surrounding the development of a large hydrogen system in Germany and the EU. Gray hydrogen produced from natural gas has played an important role so far, but could make the expansion of the hydrogen system more difficult due to the unclear price developments and security of supply.
- Harmonization: In order to achieve a similarly strong network for hydrogen in Europe as for electricity or natural gas, a common European strategy for transport and storage infrastructure is necessary. The crisis in Ukraine should serve as an impetus for the creation of a common European energy and hydrogen foreign policy.
The participants in the impulse paper were the Fraunhofer ISI, the Leibniz Institute for European History (IEG), the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE), the Ruhr University Bochum, the Potsdam Institute For Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS), and the German Institute for development policy and Energy Systems Analysis Associates GmbH.
The thesis paper “War in Ukraine: Impact on the European and German import strategy of hydrogen and derivatives,” developed as part of the HyPat program funded by the federal government, is available free of charge as a PDF (18 pages) on the ISI homepage (link below).
Photos
Brandenburg Gate, Berlin. © Johannes Plenio, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.de
