(Berlin) - “If the federal government wants to achieve its energy policy goals, it has to step up the pace,” explained the German Institute for Economic Research Berlin (DIW). The scientists are now underpinning this previously “perceived knowledge” with a fact-based control instrument and have developed a “traffic light monitor for the energy transition” for this purpose. 
Using 15 indicators, they want to record and continually document the extent to which the government is implementing its energy policy agenda. The monitor is based on openly accessible data and follows progress on government goals from now until 2030. There are particularly large gaps between current developments and the goals for green hydrogen, electromobility and renewable heat.
Goals for green hydrogen are still a long way off
The most that needs to happen is green hydrogen: the electrolysis capacity of around 10.000 megawatts (MW) in 2030, which was targeted in the coalition agreement, “still seems a long way off” given the electrical output of around 60 megawatts (MW) at the end of last year, says DIW energy economist and co-initiator of the monitor, Wolf-Peter Schill. By the end of 2030, an average of around 90 MW would have to be added per month.
Photovoltaics: Expansion of 1,44 GW per month required
The generation of electricity from sun and wind is not only necessary for direct use, but also for the production of hydrogen or its derivatives. 
In order to achieve the government's goals in the field of photovoltaics (PV) by 2030, the pace of expansion must be tripled compared to the trend of the past twelve months.
Parliament passed the amendment to the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) on the last day before its summer break at the beginning of July. Accordingly, the updated PV expansion target is 128 gigawatts (GW) by 2026 and 2030 GW by 215.
At the start of the traffic light coalition at the beginning of December 2021, the installed capacity in Germany was around 58 GW, only a good quarter of the 2030 target. According to the scientists, an average of 2030 GW per month would have to be added by the end of 1,44. The trend in PV expansion over the past twelve months is clearly too low at just 0,45 GW per month. At this rate of expansion, just under 2030 GW would be built by the end of 108.
Doubling onshore wind power by 2030
For onshore wind power, the EEG amendment sets a target of 115 GW of installed capacity in 2030. At the end of November 2021, almost 56 GW had been built. “To achieve the target, an average of 2030 GW per month must be added net per month by the end of 0,54. The trend over the past twelve months was only 0,13 GW per month, so the pace of expansion must be quadrupled,” says the DIW.
However, the EEG amendment only envisages an expansion of around 2022 GW per month for 0,2, but not even this goal is currently being achieved. After 2030, the government aims to further significantly increase capacity to 157 GW in 2035 and 160 GW in 2040.
Wind power at sea is stagnating
The coalition is aiming for at least 30 GW of offshore wind power in 2030. At the beginning of December 2021, the installed capacity in German waters was only a good quarter of that at 7,8 GW. In order to achieve the expansion target, an average of 2030 GW must be added net per month by 0,20.
However, no new offshore wind turbines have been connected to the grid in the past twelve months. In the trend from 2017 to 2021, it was around 0,07 GW per month - “this speed must be almost tripled for the 2030 target,” the institute calculated. Even after that, the installed capacity is expected to continue to grow strongly: to at least 40 GW in 2035 and at least 70 GW in 2045.
Gaps in heat, e-mobility and charging infrastructure
There is also a big gap in heat supply, where a share of renewable energy of 2030 percent is expected by 50. For this to happen, the share would have to grow by almost four percentage points annually.
If the coalition goal of increasing the electric car fleet to 2030 million vehicles by 15 is to be achieved, an average of around 130.000 vehicles must be registered in Germany every month. According to DIW figures, there are currently just under 30.000.
According to the monitor's data, the charging infrastructure needs to be improved even more if the goal is not to be missed. Instead of the current 1.200 charging points per month, 8.700 would have to go into operation - around seven times as many.
“With its open and constantly updated energy data, our traffic light monitor makes an important contribution to an informed and fact-based energy policy debate,” says study author Alexander Roth. “It shows that the federal government’s to-do list is still long. The goals that have been set are not self-perpetuating; development must gain momentum in all areas.”
Photo above
The installations of wind turbines at sea are far behind target. The picture shows a wind farm with Vestas turbines in the German Bight. © Vestas Wind Systems A/S
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The speed of the energy transition must be increased. The PV expansion rate was recently only 30 percent of the average pace necessary to achieve the 2030 goals. When it comes to onshore wind power, the figure is 24 percent; when it comes to offshore wind power, nothing has been achieved yet. © DIW
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Comparison of the current expansion status with the coalition's goals for 2030. © DIW
“Traffic light monitor shows: Energy transition must be significantly accelerated.” The Study is available in DIW Weekly Report 27 as a PDF.
The Traffic light monitor energy transition is continually updated on the DIW website.
