Berlin - Germany can become climate neutral within 30 years. This requires a comprehensive investment program that gives high priority to the expansion of renewable energies, includes the extensive electrification of transport, heating and industry, includes the energy-efficient renovation of almost all buildings and initiates the development of a hydrogen infrastructure. This is the result of an analysis “Climate-neutral Germany“ on behalf of the Berlin think tank Agora.
In a first step, emissions would fall by 2030 percent by 65 compared to 1990. This would be followed by a second step with a complete switch to climate-neutral technologies, so that emissions would fall by 95 percent. Finally, in a third step, unavoidable residual emissions would be offset through CO2 capture and storage. This requires an accelerated expansion of wind and solar power systems.
According to the study, the current installed capacity of photovoltaics will need to be tripled to 150 gigawatts (GW) by 2030. For onshore wind power, it would have to increase from the current 54 to 80 GW. Wind power at sea must grow from the current level of just under 8 to 25 GW in 2030. In return, the phase-out of coal-fired power generation would be accelerated and completed by 2030.
The authors describe energy efficiency, electricity from renewable energies and hydrogen as an energy source as the “three pillars of transformation”. By 2050, the share of renewable energies in electricity consumption will rise to 100 percent, with electricity demand increasing by around 50 percent to 960 terawatt hours (TWh) due to cross-sector electrification and the increasing production of hydrogen. Hydrogen is also used as storage. It is used in back-up power plants that step in when wind and solar systems cannot provide electricity.
In addition to the direct supply of electricity from renewable energies, the development of a hydrogen infrastructure is crucial for the industry. “In the steel industry, for example, a window of opportunity is currently opening,” says the study: “Around half of the blast furnaces in Germany will have to be replaced by 2030 for reasons of age; Plants that run on hydrogen instead of coking coal could drastically reduce CO2 emissions in the industry.” By 2050, hydrogen will gradually replace natural gas as a raw material.
In addition to domestically produced hydrogen, hydrogen imports are becoming increasingly important. The study assumes that hydrogen demand in 2050 will be around 270 TWh. 31 percent of these are manufactured in Germany.
The majority of hydrogen demand is used as fuel for electricity generation. This is partly done through combined heat and power, so that part of the district heating is also based on hydrogen. For cost reasons, the study does not see any use of hydrogen for object heating. In the transport sector, 40 TWh would be required, predominantly for heavy-duty transport with fuel cells, but also to a smaller extent for lighter commercial vehicles.
The study "Climate-neutral Germany“ was created by Prognos AG, the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute on behalf of Agora Energiewende, Agora Verkehrswende and the Climate Neutrality Foundation. A summary is already available free of charge (see link). The detailed version of the study with results for all sectors, modeling variants and method sections is expected to be published on November 9th.
deep link
https://www.agora-energiewende.de/veroeffentlichungen/klimaneutrales-deutschland-zusammenfassung/
Photos
Germany can become climate neutral by 2050 / © Power-to-X
Class schedule
CO2-free hydrogen production and use in Germany / © Agora study “Climate-neutral Germany”
